Here are five things that are likely to occur with Cable Propelled Transit technology in the near future:
ONE. A new competitor will enter the market. Arguably and to some extent, the urban public transit market is being ignored by the existing cable transit industry. That’s too huge a market to ignore. How long do you think a well-financed engineer or state-funded consortium (from China?) is going to leave all that business on the table
TWO. The technology will increase in price beyond the rate of inflation. This one’s inevitable. It costs more to sell to a city than it does to sell to a ski resort. That cost will be reflected in the end price. Add in the scope creep and pork barrelling that’s typical of public transit projects and upward pressure on capital costs are all but certain.
THREE. Continued growth in the developing world. As I’ve described before, cable benefits from physically, topographically and economically challenged environments – because no other technology can compete there. Expect the industry to line their coffers at the “lower end” of the market for the next few years.
FOUR. The jump to the developed world will be swift. Once a silver bullet line is built in a stable, western-style democracy, expect many other developed world cities to follow suit. Remember: All cities have physical and topographical challenges that cable can exploit and put to good use.
FIVE. Sustainable improvements will come from within, disruptive ones from without. The industry has demonstrated a great ability at making sustained and continued improvements in their technologies. No reason to think that won’t continue to be the case. But large scale disruptive changes tend not to come from within large, stable companies, but are instead forced upon an industry by outside insurgents. No reason to believe this won’t be the case here.
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