Here we go, folks . . .
A variety of media outlets are reporting that Google’s self-driving cars have been approved for use in the state of Nevada. This is the first-ever license issued under new state-specific legislation permitting the testing of autonomous automobiles. Under the legislation, all vehicles will be required to have at least two passengers inside the vehicles at a time.
In case people think this is just some isolated, Google-centric, pie-in-the-sky fantasy it’s worth noting that major manufacturers like BMW and Audi are pursuing similar products and General Motors has gone on record as predicting such a market shift by as early as the year 2020.
Regular readers of The Gondola Project know that we:
- are pretty positive on the merits of the technology;
- once conceptually outlined a scenario by which the vehicles may be deployed throughout the developed world and;
- laid out ten strong reasons why the technology has the very real potential to destroy and/or radically alter the public transportation industry.
Does this mean Public Transit should start shopping around for a tombstone and casket? Not at all.
But it does mean Public Transit should start monitoring its cholesterol and getting to the gym a few times a week. You bet.
This fight is going to come sooner than expected and the Public Transit industry is completely ill-prepared for it. Public Transit advocates will point to developed transit cities like New York, Toronto and a revitalized Los Angeles as evidence to the contrary, but Google and the auto manufacturers would never be so stupid as to fight the battle in those cities.
Instead they’ll choose to fight the battle in largish American urban regions with high populations, extensive road infrastructure and little in the way of formalized public transit.
Places like Tampa Bay, San Diego and . . . Las Vegas, for example.
3 Comments
On the contrary, this could work in transit’s favor. Automated systems like Vancouver’s SkyTrain can run very frequently, since all of their costs are capital costs – not labor. By far, the highest cost in a bus system is the drivers. Remove drivers, and you can afford to run many more buses for the same cost.
Sure, you still have to work out details like payment (on-bus turnstyles would be one option) and security (cameras, and emergency buttons just like trains?). But this could work for buses as well as on-grade trains.
Maybe for buses, but certainly not for rail.
Are you telling me that there won’t be a few agencies in the next 10-20 years who wouldn’t look at the capital cost difference between installing a low-capacity LRT system (as that’s what most American cities opt for) with long headways or simply buying a fleet of these vehicles instead?
My gut says that if PT truly finds a way to compete with this thing, they’re going to have to adopt it as part of their strategy.
No, I don’t see transit agencies providing small driverless vehicles. At that point you’re looking at the private market – both personal vehicles and cabs*. Efficiency with transit comes with vehicles that can take a large number of people between large hubs. Adding more small vehicles to the road will make you build more road, and expanding roads has the same magnitude of cost as adding rail.
* This will totally revolutionize the taxi. I’m picturing an icon in Google Maps that says “you can be there in 18 minutes by taxi, for $11”, complete with a buy-it-now button. Taxi shows up, already knowing where to go.