Post by Steven Dale
I’m sure there’s plenty more trends that work to Urban Gondolas’ and Cable Transit’s advantage, but these are the first 12 I could think of. Feel free to contribute your own in the comments.
- The Rise of The Private Automobile. As the price of cars decrease rapidly due to Chinese and Indian manufacturers, private car ownership is likely to increase dramatically the world over. In turn, street level traffic will become even worse than it already is now. Street level transit solutions like Buses, Streetcars, LRT and BRT will be just as stuck in (and contributing to) this traffic, thereby offering no competitive alternative to the car.
- Western Democracies are Broke and Getting Broker. As governments around the world grapple with the conflicting and urgent needs to increase transit infrastructure and tackle crippling budget deficits/debt, lower cost transit solutions become a necessity.
- The Rise of Conspicuous and Convenience Consumption. 75 years ago people would accept a streetcar every 15 minutes and adjust their schedules to meet their transit service. But that was well before the world of iPods and “I Want My MTV.” Today, however, people are fixated on their own schedules and needs. Transit that can offer reliable on-demand service or LT1M wait times are at a distinct advantage.
- Growth in Telecommuting and Off-Peak Commuting. As more and more people choose to work from home (either part-time or full-time), and micromultinationals become normalized, the need for mass capacity transit into Central Business Districts will become less and less relevant in all but the most important financial centers. The construction of underground Subways and Metros have already ground to a halt in Western Democracies, and these new commuting patterns are likely to hasten this trend. Massive capacity transit will become obsolete.
- The Continued Failure of PRT. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) has often been idealized as public transit’s future savior. Yet, despite more than 50 years of attempts, PRT has never been implemented. Could it sometime? Yes, but not in the near future. Cable Propelled Transit (CPT), however, offers many of the attributes of PRT, but is actually on the ground, in operation. Those who’ve been frustrated by PRT’s lack of progress may find themselves gravitating towards CPT.
- New-Urbanism and The Rebirth of the Town Square. Despite 60 years of the onslaught of suburbia, suburban communities are beginning to grow denser. The rise of telecommuting, increasing gas prices, and New Urbanist ideals are likely to spur the creation of villages within cities. People will, however, still need to get around those villages and low-cost, medium-capacity circulator systems will likely fill that role.
- Master Planned Developments and Incorporated Towns. Multi-billion dollar “Master Planned Developments” and incorporated towns that function more as businesses than as cities are not yet common, but they do have a noticeable presence in North America (check out Las Vegas CityCenter, Celebration Florida and Sandy Springs Georgia). As towns and villages are structured as investment ventures instead of as towns and villages, public transit becomes a selling point to potential customers. But as public transit would be nothing more than a line in a balance sheet, investors are likely to look towards more cost-effective and eye-catching solutions.
- Free Public Transit. Is this one a trend? I don’t know, but the movement towards Free Public Transit is catching people’s attention. Should Free Public Transit catch on, transit operators will be under intense budgetary pressure to deliver services in a more cost-efficient manner from both a capital and operations & maintenance perspective.
- The Cost of Labour & Union Strength. Bus drivers in New York can’t be outsourced to China. And since labour is one of the largest budgetary items in any transit operator’s balance sheet and as transit unions ensure that cost continually rises, it’s reasonable to expect moves by transit systems towards automation, and driver attrition via retirement.
- The Mainstreaming of Environmental Concerns. Cable is thought to be one of – if not the – most energy efficient public transit systems in existence. Should peer-reviewed research demonstrate this fact categorically, expect to see the environmental movement adopt the technology.
- Continued Advances in Cable Technology. In less than 10 years time, cable has doubled its capacity; increased its speed; added numerous amenities; and driven down costs on a per rider basis. There’s no reason to believe these advances won’t continue, making the technology all the more appealing for cities around the globe.
- Immigration, The Internet, Globalization and Mass Tourism. Good ideas move quickly nowadays. 800 years ago you needed Marco Polo, two decades and a Caravan of Merchants just to get the idea of pasta from China to Italy. Today, you’d just look it up on Wikipedia and Flickr. Even 20 years ago, cable didn’t have much of a chance, but due to the internet, that’s all changed. Great ideas now spread like wildfire.
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Want more? Purchase Cable Car Confidential: The Essential Guide to Cable Cars, Urban Gondolas & Cable Propelled Transit and start learning about the world's fastest growing transportation technologies.
